Expected Value Grading Calculator

See if grading is worth it — fast. Enter a raw value, set your grade odds, and get instant EV, all‑in costs, and net vs raw.

Works for PSA, CGC, and SGC with tier caps, declared value, shipping/insurance, and optional upcharge simulation. Skip the "$80 rule" — make data‑driven decisions.

Instant EVAll‑in costs includedUpcharge‑aware

Costs & Service

Grading Service

Service Tier

Declared Value

Sets insurance cost. Auto-suggested from your highest expected grade value.

Upcharge Simulation

Adjust fees if a grade exceeds declared cap

Advanced Costs

Supplies & Prep

Contingency Buffer

Why Use the EV Method Instead of the $80 Rule?

The hobby's "$80 rule" is just slang — not official policy from PSA, CGC, or SGC. It suggests only grading cards that can clear about $80 net profit after all costs.

The problem? It ignores how card values, fees, and risks actually work:

Card-specific value jumps: Some cards skyrocket from PSA 8 → 9 → 10, others barely move
Scaling costs: Fees, insurance, and shipping increase with declared value
Upcharges: If your card grades higher than your declared cap, you pay more
Market volatility: Card comps change constantly

How to Use This Calculator

Enter your raw card value: Check recent comps for your exact card
Set grade probabilities: Be honest about your odds for PSA 10, 9, 8, etc. based on centering, corners, surface, and edges
Input grade values: Look up real sales for each grade you think is realistic
Choose service and tier: Select PSA, CGC, or SGC and the appropriate tier for your card's value
Review all costs: Includes grading fees, shipping + insurance (both ways), supplies, and contingency
See your EV: Get instant expected value with scenario adjustments (Conservative, Base, Optimistic)

Understanding Declared Value and Upcharges

When you submit a card, you must declare a value. This sets your service tier and pricing:

PSA: Pick a tier tied to a declared value cap. If the graded value exceeds that cap, PSA can move it up and charge an upcharge
CGC: Submit a declared value. If the card grades higher, CGC may increase the tier and charge more
SGC: Declared value is used for insurance, but they may adjust fees if the true value is much higher

This is why the $80 rule is misleading. Upcharges and scaling costs can crush a thin margin.

Pre-Submission Checklist

✔ Compare condition & centering to grading standards
✔ Research grade-specific comps
✔ Select the correct tier for likely grade value
✔ Include all costs (fees, shipping, insurance, supplies)
✔ Plan for upcharges if a grade exceeds the cap
✔ Run EV before submitting

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the $80 rule official?

No, it's hobby slang — not PSA, CGC, or SGC policy. It started during the grading backlog and fee hikes of 2020–2021.

Is 80/20 the same as the $80 rule?

No, 80/20 refers to grading tolerance for card centering — it has nothing to do with profit margins or the "$80 rule."

How much buffer should I use?

It depends on your card and the market. Use the scenario adjustments (Conservative/Base/Optimistic) to see a range of outcomes. This is more reliable than a single dollar amount.

Do grading companies upcharge?

Yes — PSA, CGC, and SGC can all adjust fees if the card's value exceeds its declared cap. Enable "Upcharge Simulation" in the calculator to account for this.

Does the calculator save my data?

Yes, your calculations are automatically saved to your browser's local storage. You can return later and pick up where you left off.