Should You Grade Your Card? A Simple EV Method Beats the $80 Rule

Thinking about grading your sports cards or trading cards? You’ve probably heard collectors mention the “$80 rule.” Some treat it as gospel, others dismiss it. The truth: it’s not an official policy from PSA, CGC, SGC, or Beckett—it’s just hobby slang.

In this guide, we’ll explain what the $80 rule really means, why it often fails, and how to use a simple expected value (EV) method to make smarter grading decisions. This approach factors in declared value, service tiers, potential upcharges, and real card market comps—so you can protect your profit margins and avoid surprises.

What Is the Card Grading $80 Rule?

The $80 rule is not official. No grading company has published it.

• It started during the grading backlog and fee hikes of 2020–2021.
• The rule: only grade a card if you can clear about $80 net profit after all-in costs (grading, shipping, insurance, etc.).

👉 Important: The $80 rule is not the same as 80/20 centering. 80/20 refers to grading tolerance for card centering—it has nothing to do with profit margins.

Why the $80 Rule Doesn’t Work Well

The problem with using a flat “$80 buffer” is that it ignores how card values, fees, and risks actually work.

• Card-specific value jumps. Some cards skyrocket from PSA 8 → 9 → 10, others barely move.
• Scaling costs. Fees, insurance, and shipping increase with card value. An upcharge can erase your cushion.
• Market volatility. Card comps change constantly—$80 today might be $30 tomorrow.

Declared Value, Service Tiers, and Upcharges (PSA, CGC, SGC)

When you submit a card, you must declare a value. This sets your service tier and pricing.

• PSA grading: You pick a tier tied to a declared value cap. If the graded value exceeds that cap, PSA can move it up and charge an upcharge. Shipping/insurance also scale with value.
• CGC Cards: You submit a declared value. If the card grades higher, CGC may increase the tier and charge more. Insurance is tied to your declared value.
• SGC: Declared value is used for insurance, but they may adjust fees if the true value is much higher.

👉 Why this matters: The $80 rule is misleading. Upcharges and scaling costs can crush a thin margin.

A Smarter Way: The Expected Value (EV) Method

Instead of guessing with a flat-dollar rule, use a data-driven EV approach. Here’s how:

Step 1: Price the raw card

Check recent comps for your exact card (set, variation, condition).

Step 2: Estimate grade probabilities

Inspect centering, corners, surface, and edges. Be honest about your odds for PSA 9, PSA 8, PSA 10, etc.

Step 3: Pull comps by grade

Look up real sales for each grade you think is realistic.

Step 4: Add all-in costs

Include:

• Grading fees for the right tier
• Shipping + insurance (both ways)
• Supplies and prep
• Contingency for possible upcharges

Step 5: Run the math

• EV Sale Price = Σ(probability × price of each grade)
• EV Net vs Raw = EV Sale Price − raw value − costs

Example: EV vs $80 Rule

• Raw fair value: $50
• Probabilities: PSA 10 (10%), PSA 9 (55%), PSA 8 (35%)
• Comps: PSA 10 = $300, PSA 9 = $200, PSA 8 = $100
• Costs: $50

EV Sale Price = (0.10×300 + 0.55×200 + 0.35×100) = $175 EV Net vs Raw = $175 − $50 − $50 = $75

• Under the $80 rule → you'd pass.
• With EV analysis → you see thin margins, and an upcharge would shrink profits further.

How to Protect Margins in Card Grading

• Choose the right service tier up front
• Always factor in shipping + insurance scaling
• Use grade-specific comps—never generic “PSA 8–10 averages”
• Build a risk buffer for surprises (fees, market dips)

Why Collectors Still Talk About the $80 Rule

During the grading boom, the $80 shortcut saved people from sending in borderline cards. But today, tiers, caps, insurance, and upcharges are what really matter.

That’s why collectors who want to maximize returns use an EV-based strategy instead.

Pre-Submission Checklist

✔ Compare condition & centering to grading standards ✔ Research grade-specific comps ✔ Select the correct tier for likely grade value ✔ Include all costs (fees, shipping, insurance, supplies) ✔ Plan for upcharges if a grade exceeds the cap ✔ Run EV before submitting

FAQs

Is the $80 rule official? No, it’s hobby slang—not PSA or CGC policy.

Is 80/20 the same thing? No, that’s about centering tolerance, not profit margins.

How much buffer should I use? It depends. EV ranges (conservative/base/optimistic) are more reliable than a single number.

Do grading companies upcharge? Yes — PSA, CGC, and SGC can all adjust fees if the card’s value exceeds its declared cap.

Conclusion

The card grading $80 rule is a quick community shortcut—but it’s not official, and it’s often misleading.

For real grading success, use the expected value (EV) method, which accounts for declared value tiers, potential upcharges, fees, and grade-specific comps.

This is how you protect your margin, avoid surprises, and make smarter grading decisions in today’s card market.